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Game kiếm tiền:ECOVACS(603486):BUCKING THE TREND WITH SUSTAINED GROWTH

Game kiếm tiền:ECOVACS(603486):BUCKING THE TREND WITH SUSTAINED GROWTH

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Ecovacs released its 2022 “Double 11” sales, reporting omnichannel turnover of Rmb3.72bn (+24% YoY) during the annual Nov 11 (dubbed 11.11 or Double 11) shopping festival. Against the background of a sluggish domestic consumption environment, its Ecovacs and Tineco brands both maintained their growth trend. At the same time, this year’s Double 11 shopping festival again validated the Company's leading position in the floor-cleaning appliance industry. We keep our 2022E/23E/24E attributed net profit (ANP) forecast unchanged at Rmb1.97bn/2.56bn/3.23bn and reiterate the "BUY" rating.
Double 11 turnover of the Ecovacs brand was Rmb1.8bn (+20% YoY). (1) Competition: During the Double 11 shopping festival in 2022, Ecovacs again topped other brands of robot vacuum cleaners on five major platforms, such as Tmall/JD/Douyin (Tiktok), with a market share of more than 45%. (2) Products: The main product T10 OMNI, which started to sell at a lower price of Rmb3,500-4,000 in 3Q22, is very cost-effective, and its Double 11 turnover ranked first. In terms of high-end products, X1 PRO OMNI ranked first by market share in the price band of above Rmb5,000. The Company's competitive pricing strategy is beginning to make progress. The sales of its robot vacuum cleaners with base stations increased 49% YoY. (3) New products: AIRBOT, an air purification robot, once again became the top product among all brands in the price band of above Rmb3,000, and WINBOT, a window cleaning robot, also maintained the top market share. At the end of Oct, the Ecovacs brand launched a robotic lawn mower and a commercial cleaning robot, further enriching the product line of the robot business.
Double 11 turnover of the Tineco brand was Rmb1.83bn (+26% YoY). (1) Competition: Although the competition in the wet and dry vacuum cleaner industry was fierce this year, the leading position of the Tineco brand remains unshaken. Tineco’s wet and dry vacuum cleaners again ranked No. 1 during the Double 11 promotions on five major platforms, such as Tmall/JD/Douyin (Tiktok), with a market share of 59%/65%/45% on Tmall/JD/Douyin (Tiktok), respectively. In terms of offline channels, Tineco's leading advantage is even more obvious. During the latest Double 11 shopping festival, Tineco's offline stores recorded turnover of Rmb250mn. (2) Products: During the Double 11 period, Tineco's wet and dry vacuum cleaner turnover increased 28% YoY.
Floor One 2.0 series ranked first in terms of turnover of a single product. In addition, the Company launched Floor One Station, a floor cleaner with a base station, which is also highly recognized by the market, and its sales volume exceeded 10,000 units. (3) New products: Tineco is actively building its next potential best-selling products this year. During the Double 11 period, the turnover of its smart cooking machine Chiere One increased 98% YoY, and the turnover of this year's new product Hydrate One increased 66% compared with that during the 6.18 shopping festival in Jun.
Outlook: An inflection point in sales volume is coming to warrant a breakthrough in penetration with the competitive pricing strategy. (1) From the short-term perspective: The Company's Double 11 data revealed marginal changes in the sales of robot vacuum cleaners. Since 2020, due to the accelerated pace of technology iteration, the price of high-end robot vacuum cleaners also continued to rise, which to a certain extent inhibited the growth of industry-wide sales. Since 3Q22, Ecovacs has strategically guided the industry to start reducing prices to achieve a breakthrough in sales volume. As seen from the 2022 Double 11 data, the strategy has achieved initial results. Combined with the trend of consumption recovery after the relaxation of pandemic control measures, we expect the Company's sales to get back on track for growth next year. (2) From the long-term perspective: We expect that the floor cleaning business will gradually embrace the trend of electrification and intelligence, and the combination of robot vacuum cleaners and wet and dry vacuum cleaners will gradually replace the traditional combination of brooms and mops. At present, the penetration rate of robot vacuum cleaners and wet and dry vacuum cleaners in domestic urban households falls below 15% on the whole, and if we only count robot vacuum cleaners with base stations and intelligent wet and dry vacuum cleaners, the penetration rate is less than 10%. The long-term growth space of the industry is still broad.
Potential risks: (1) The Company's revenue growth is lower than expected due to Covid-19 resurgences in parts of China and dampened consumer demand because of the recession in Europe and the US; (2) the Company's profitability declines due to increased competition in the industry; (3) the Company fails to sustain innovation.
Investment recommendation Against the background of a sluggish domestic consumption environment, the Company’s Ecovacs and Tineco brands both maintained their growth trend during the Double 11 shopping festival, which again validated the Company's leading position in the floor cleaning appliance industry. We maintain our 2022E/23E/24E ANP forecast of Rmb1.97bn/2.56bn/3.23bn and reiterate the "BUY" rating.
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